When politicians cite Covid-19 statistics, they may be wrong – it doesn't mean the numbers are | David Spiegelhalter

Statisticians would welcome an inquiry into their role in this crisis – they have done a good jobDavid Spiegelhalter is the author of The Art of Statistics“Sooner or later we are going to have to have an inquiry into the role of statisticians in the Covid-19 crisis,” declared the journalist Ross Clark in the Daily Telegraph recently. “They will have to be put in the hot seat and grilled as to whether they contributed to the sense of panic which has gripped so many people and disrupted normal life for so long.” As one of those beastly statisticians, I would relish the opportunity.In my book The Art of Statistics, published last year, I quote the statistician and writer Nate Silver, who said: “Numbers have no way of speaking for themselves… we imbue them with meaning.” During this crisis, a lot of meaning has been imbued by people who want the numbers to support their argument. This may include making comparisons with Sweden to say a strict lockdown is unnecessary, or pointing to rising infection rates to demand a zero-Covid strategy. In contrast, statisticians tend to be pedantically cautious in their interpretation of data, as they understand its frailties and uncertainties, and are very reluctant to use it to argue that something should or should not be done. Continue reading…
Via: When politicians cite Covid-19 statistics, they may be wrong – it doesn't mean the numbers are | David Spiegelhalter